Every forecast I have published, graded.
Since May 2026, each campaign breakdown in The Strategy Signal has ended with a dated call about where the pattern goes next. This page lists every one I have published: the day it was made, the day it comes due, and what happened. Hits, misses, and open calls sit on one page.
If you advise clients on campaigns, these are the calls you can lean on in a client meeting, and the ones you cannot.
Last updated October 27, 2026.
The commitment
Written September 10, 2026, before any call had been graded. One edit, made October 22, 2026: “Every issue” became “Every campaign breakdown,” because one issue is not a breakdown and carries no call.
Every campaign breakdown in The Strategy Signal ends with one sentence you can hold me to: a specific actor, a specific event, a specific date. This page is where those sentences go to be checked.
Here is how it works. Each call gets two dates. At 90 days I check whether it is on track and say so. At the grade date, six or twelve months out, it gets one of three marks: Happened, Did not happen, or Could not be graded. The wording of a call is never edited after it is published. If I change my mind, that is a new call, and it points back to the old one. Once a quarter I publish a Scorecard issue that grades everything that came due, misses first.
An accuracy percentage appears on this page only after 25 calls have been graded. A rate built on five calls is noise. Until then, the rows are the record.
The count
Calls made: 12
Graded: 1 (Happened 0 · Did not happen 1 · Could not be graded 0)
Open: 11
Check-ins: On track 5 · Too early 1 · Off track 0 · Due, not yet marked 0 · Still ahead 5 · None 1 (the first call was made before I kept a tracker)
Next check-in due: The Portfolio Prism (Unilever), October 28, 2026.
No accuracy rate yet. It appears after 25 graded calls.
How grading works
The test. Every call names who, what, and by when. On the grade date, a stranger with a search engine should be able to mark it true or false. Every new call has to pass that test before it runs.
The check-in. About 90 days after a call is made, I look at the evidence and mark it On track, Off track, or Too early. A check-in is a progress note that comes before the grade.
The grade. On the grade date, the call gets one mark: Happened, Did not happen, or Could not be graded. Could not be graded means the public evidence needed to settle the call does not exist. That mark stays on the page. Nothing is removed.
What settles it. Each call lists the public evidence that decides it, so you can check my mark yourself.
I grade my own calls. That is a limit. Every mark on this page comes with the evidence I used and where I found it. Where I could not check something, I say so.
Wording. Nine of the twelve calls below say “Restated Sep 10, 2026.” Most of those issues printed their forecasts as scenarios with probabilities and open windows, such as “over the next six to twelve months.” A stranger cannot mark that true or false. On September 10, 2026, I rewrote each into one gradeable sentence, using only that issue’s own list of what to watch. The original is still in the published issue. Two calls say “As published” because the issue’s own sentence already passed the test.
Dates. Each call shows two dates: the day the issue was published, and the day I logged the call in my tracker. Grade dates count from the logged day, which for some calls is up to 11 days before the issue went out.
Graded calls
One call has come due. It is a miss.
The Maturation Pivot (Chime)
Status: Did not happen
Published May 26, 2026 · Logged May 26, 2026 · Wording: As published · Read the issue →
The call. Two to three fintech competitors, Cash App, SoFi, Ally, launch celebrity campaigns before Q4 2026.
Confidence. High
Check-in. None. This call was made before the tracker existed.
Grade date. Oct 1, 2026. Marked Oct 22, 2026: Did not happen.
What settles it. At least two of Cash App, SoFi, Ally (or other direct Chime competitors) launch a brand campaign fronted by a named celebrity between May 26 and Sep 30, 2026, per the brands’ newsrooms, AdAge, Adweek, or Meta Ad Library.
What I found. I found no celebrity-fronted brand campaign from Cash App or Ally inside the window. Cash App’s press page lists none, but its index starts on August 6, 2026, so for May through July that page alone cannot confirm it. Ally’s Life Today release of May 14, 2026 names no on-screen talent and predates the window. SoFi’s Josh Allen partnership began in 2025. The one new SoFi spot with Allen that I found, “Smart Play,” was posted to iSpot on October 12, 2026, with no public first-air date. That is one brand at most. The call needed two. I did not check Meta Ad Library, which needs a logged-in session.
Sources: Cash App press page · Simply Wall St on the SoFi and Josh Allen deal, Sep 17, 2025 · iSpot, SoFi “Smart Play,” posted Oct 12, 2026 · Ally, May 14, 2026
Open calls
Newest first.
The Audience Lease (Old Navy x MrBeast)
Status: Open. Check-in still ahead
Published Oct 27, 2026 · Logged Oct 27, 2026 · Read the issue →
The call. By October 27, 2027, no major US apparel retailer publishes a creator-campaign result carrying both a disclosed spend figure and a named incrementality method.
In plain English. No major US clothing company will publicly share both what it paid for a creator campaign and how many extra sales it brought in, measured with a named test. This is about what they show the public. Plenty may measure it privately.
Confidence. Likely
Check-in. Jan 25, 2027.
Grade date. Oct 27, 2027
What settles it. A public result from Gap Inc., Abercrombie & Fitch, American Eagle Outfitters, Urban Outfitters, Levi Strauss, Nike, Under Armour, Ralph Lauren, PVH, Carter’s or The Children’s Place, under the brand’s own name, with the spend disclosed and the method named: holdout, matched-market, or a validated media mix model. Anonymous vendor case studies do not count.
The Uncapped Drop (Taco Bell)
Status: Open. Check-in still ahead
Published Sep 4, 2026 · Logged Sep 4, 2026 · Wording: Restated Sep 10, 2026 · Read the issue →
The call. By March 4, 2027, Taco Bell announces a permanent menu or price move (a returning item or a restored price tier) and its own announcement frames it as a response to customer requests rather than as recovery.
Confidence. Medium
Check-in. Dec 3, 2026.
Grade date. Mar 4, 2027
What settles it. Taco Bell newsroom and app announcements; Yum Q4 2026 commentary.
The Proof-of-Scarcity Ladder (The Odyssey)
Status: Open. Check-in still ahead
Published Aug 22, 2026 · Logged Aug 16, 2026 · Wording: Restated Sep 10, 2026 · Read the issue →
The call. By August 16, 2027, none of Universal, IMAX, AMC, or Regal launches a verified or price-capped official resale product for premium-format tickets in the US.
Confidence. High on direction
Check-in. Nov 14, 2026.
Grade date. Aug 16, 2027
What settles it. The four companies’ newsrooms and ticketing pages; Deadline, Variety, THR. An official access product that ships is not confirmation; it starts the 30-day sentiment watch.
What I found. The research behind this call missed three times before the call was set. A second wave of 70mm showings arrived within days. The timing I first forecast, nine to fifteen months, ran under thirty days. And the condition I named for killing the pattern, IMAX adding projectors, cannot happen. The call above is the version that survived those corrections.
The Portfolio Prism (Unilever)
Status: Open. Check-in pending, due Oct 28, 2026
Published Aug 8, 2026 · Logged Aug 1, 2026 · Wording: As published · Read the issue →
The call. Within twelve months, Unilever runs at least two more portfolio-wide cultural activations on the same spine.
Confidence. Medium-High
Check-in. Oct 28, 2026. Pending. The test: Unilever announces how it will measure its creator spend, or defends the spend with reach figures.
Grade date. Aug 1, 2027
What settles it. Unilever newsroom and investor materials; count of multi-brand, single-window activations on a shared creator and content spine between Aug 1, 2026 and Aug 1, 2027. The 2027 Women’s World Cup is the first candidate.
What I found. Nothing yet. This check-in waits on Unilever’s Q3 2026 trading statement, which the company lists for October 28, 2026. As of October 25, 2026 it is not out. I will run the check on or after October 28 and mark it then.
Sources: Unilever, upcoming results and events, checked Oct 25, 2026
Authorship as Aspiration (Coach)
Status: Open. Check-in: On track
Published Jul 29, 2026 · Logged Jul 19, 2026 · Wording: Restated Sep 10, 2026 · Read the issue →
The call. By July 19, 2027, no accessible-luxury peer (Kate Spade, Tory Burch, Longchamp, Furla, MCM, Polène, Michael Kors, Marc Jacobs) launches a fan co-creation platform with a public submission mechanic.
Confidence. High
Check-in. Oct 17, 2026. Marked On track Oct 22, 2026.
Grade date. Jul 19, 2027
What settles it. Each brand’s site and app; trade press.
What I found. I found no fan co-creation platform with a public submission program from any of the eight named peers on their own sites or apps. One item points the other way. Kate Spade and CLO Virtual Fashion opened a 3D design contest on CLO’s CONNECT site, with entries from September 21 to November 23, 2026 and $5,500 in prizes. The rules page shows no invite requirement, allows up to five entries each, and says a judging panel picks winners and Kate Spade may produce winning designs. It runs on CLO’s site, not Kate Spade’s, it is aimed at 3D designers building Gen Z looks, and entries are not shown publicly. I mark the check-in On track by the letter of the call and show the contest here so you can judge for yourself. I did not check the eight brands’ sites and apps one by one.
Sources: CLO CONNECT contest rules page · Retail Boss, Sep 21, 2026
The Private Mint (Verkkokauppa)
Status: Open. Check-in: On track
Published Jul 14, 2026 · Logged Jul 12, 2026 · Wording: Restated Sep 10, 2026 · Read the issue →
The call. By January 12, 2027, no brand or platform launches a named mechanic that pays audiences in cash or open credit for reaching engagement thresholds, and no named replication of views-for-products appears in trade press.
Confidence. High
Check-in. Oct 12, 2026. Marked On track Oct 22, 2026.
Grade date. Jan 12, 2027
What settles it. Trade press and TikTok newsroom; search for engagement plus cash out or pays viewers; disguised replication counts only if named as such in press.
What I found. I found no brand or platform paying viewers cash or open credit for hitting an engagement threshold. One development points the other way. On October 2, 2026, Verkkokauppa, the brand behind the original campaign, launched Viral Payback 2.0 on Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. People post reviews and redeem store products by view count, starting at 100 views. It pays in products. The call names cash or open credit, and the same brand runs it, so I mark the check-in On track by the letter of the call and show it here so you can judge for yourself. I did not review the TikTok newsroom page by page.
Sources: Verkkokauppa press release, Oct 2, 2026 · Selfstorming campaign library
The Infrastructure Pivot (AXA)
Status: Open. Check-in: On track
Published Jul 6, 2026 · Logged Jul 6, 2026 · Wording: Restated Sep 10, 2026 · Read the issue →
The call. By July 6, 2027, no more than one insurance or banking brand launches a campaign built on a real contract or policy change that trade press explicitly compares to AXA “Three Words.”
Confidence. Medium-High
Check-in. Oct 6, 2026. Marked On track Oct 22, 2026.
Grade date. Jul 6, 2027
What settles it. Trade press search for AXA plus Three Words plus a brand name; Cannes and Effie 2027 entries in insurance and banking.
What I found. Trade press searches for AXA’s Three Words alongside another insurer or bank turn up no campaign built on a contract or policy change. Coverage since June stays on AXA alone, including the D&AD Annual 2026 write-up of September 16, 2026. Cannes and Effie 2027 entries do not exist yet.
Sources: D&AD Annual 2026 · Contagious, Cannes Lions 2026, Jun 25, 2026
The Failure-State Frame (FIS)
Status: Open. Check-in: Too early
Published Jun 29, 2026 · Logged Jun 24, 2026 · Wording: Restated Sep 10, 2026 · Read the issue →
The call. By June 24, 2027, at least three enterprise infrastructure brands other than FIS and Anthropic launch a dramatized failure-state campaign that runs on both connected TV and LinkedIn.
Confidence. High on spread
Check-in. Sep 22, 2026. Marked Too early Oct 22, 2026.
Grade date. Jun 24, 2027
What settles it. Trade press launch coverage (AdAge, Adweek, The Drum, Campaign); LinkedIn Ad Library; the brands’ own newsrooms.
What I found. FIS’s “Money in Harmony” won Best in Show at the ANA B2 Awards on June 4, 2026, for a campaign on connected TV, LinkedIn, and YouTube. No other winner in that release was described as a failure-state campaign. Four months into a twelve-month window, I found no qualifying launches. The nearest new find, a UK government cyber campaign from February 2026, comes from a government sender, shows threat rather than failure, and predates the call. I did not check LinkedIn Ad Library, which needs a logged-in session.
Sources: ANA B2 Awards release, Jun 2026 · Ads of the World, UK Cyber Resilience
The Fate Disguise (Netflix)
Status: Open. Check-in: On track
Published Jun 22, 2026 · Logged Jun 22, 2026 · Wording: Restated Sep 10, 2026 · Read the issue →
The call. By March 22, 2027, at least one streaming, beauty, or luxury brand ships a fate or destiny-themed quiz or personalization mechanic inside its own product or purchase flow, not as a one-off PR activation.
Confidence. High
Check-in. Sep 20, 2026. Marked On track Sep 21, 2026.
Grade date. Mar 22, 2027. Moved from Jun 22, 2027 on Oct 22, 2026 to match the call’s own deadline.
What settles it. The brand’s own product or app; Klaviyo and Typeform template libraries; Meta Ad Library for fate-themed paid creative.
What I found. The clearest signal so far is Netflix’s Discover Your Future tarot quiz, launched January 7, 2026. It was a time-boxed campaign tied to the 2026 slate, which the call excludes. I found no streaming, beauty, or luxury brand with a dated fate or destiny quiz inside its product or purchase flow. Typeform’s quiz template library carries no fate theme, and I could not find a public Klaviyo index to check. One open item: L’Oréal Paris has a “Find Your Zodiac Makeup Look!” quiz page on its US site. The page carries no date, and I could not confirm what the quiz does or whether it leads to products, so I cannot place it against the call. I did not check Meta Ad Library.
Sources: Netflix Tudum, Jan 7, 2026 · L’Oréal Paris quiz page
The Lightning Rod Strategy (American Eagle)
Status: Open. Check-in: On track
Published Jun 18, 2026 · Logged Jun 7, 2026 · Wording: Restated Sep 10, 2026 · Read the issue →
The call. American Eagle brand comparable sales do not turn positive in any quarter of fiscal 2026 while Aerie comparable sales stay positive, per AEO’s quarterly reports through the Q4 report in March 2027.
Confidence. High
Check-in. Sep 7, 2026. Marked On track Sep 10, 2026.
Grade date. Jun 7, 2027
What settles it. AEO Q3 (December 2026) and Q4 (March 2027) press releases, AE and Aerie comp lines.
What I found. American Eagle’s second-quarter press release, issued September 9, 2026, shows American Eagle brand comparable sales down 1 percent and Aerie comparable sales up 19 percent. Call coverage from Benzinga and The Cerbat Gem reports management saying it will shift marketing dollars toward conversion-oriented tactics after four quarters of awareness spending. Two reported quarters now fit the call: brand comps negative and Aerie positive in both. This is a progress note. The grade comes later. I did not check Meta Ad Library.
Sources: AEO second-quarter press release, Sep 9, 2026
Mirror Loop Protocol (Spotify Wrapped)
Status: Open. Check-in still ahead
Published Jun 1, 2026 · Logged May 29, 2026 · Wording: Restated Sep 10, 2026 · Read the issue →
The call. By May 29, 2027, a DevOps or engineering-infrastructure vendor ships a shareable, Wrapped-style team or organization report, and does so before any major marketing publication names this pattern.
Confidence. High
Check-in. Nov 29, 2026. This review date sits about six months out, not at 90 days.
Grade date. May 29, 2027
What settles it. Vendor release notes or launch post; AdAge, Adweek, Marketing Week, HBR search for a named version of the pattern with a date.
Where every call stands
Issues with no call
The forecast habit began with the May 26, 2026 issue. The eight issues from March 16 to May 20, 2026 (Cultural Aftermarket, Memory Equity, Category Crasher, Category Inversion, Inoculation Play, Entertainment Trojan Horse, Resurrection Quest, and Borrowed Authenticity) are case studies and are not graded. The September 18, 2026 issue on building an app is not a campaign breakdown and carries no call.
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